Thursday, August 6, 2026

Pasadena Unified Enrollment Decline Will Continue, Consultant Report Says

Pasadena Unified School District’s TK-12 enrollment, including charter schools, has fallen 38% from its 2000 peak, driven by declining birth rates.

The District’s non-charter enrollment is down 44% since 2000, according to an enrollment forecast progress report from demographic consultant NDC to be presented to the Pasadea Board of Education Thursday night.

The report also found a high private-school share and few students in recently constructed housing, and noted the District loses students as they progress through the grades because families leave the area.

The elementary grades have absorbed the sharpest drop. Elementary enrollment plummeted 49%, from 12,199 students in 1999 to 6,173 in 2025. Kindergarten enrollment fell 56%, from 2,062 students in 1996 to 914 in 2025.

High schools have not yet experienced the full decline, according to the report. High school enrollment dropped 35%, from 6,414 students in 2004 to 4,193 in 2025.

NDC listed future housing scenarios, Eaton Fire recovery scenarios, and resulting enrollment forecasts as next steps. The consultant set Aug. 31 as the target date for its demographic report to the facility master plan team, noting that forecasts must be updated when official 2026-2027 data become available.

The report placed Pasadena Unified School District’s decline alongside an 8% statewide decline from the 2006 peak and a 27% Los Angeles County decline from the 2003 peak. Both statewide and county totals include charter schools.

Pasadena Unified recorded 1,020 students transferring into the District and 325 transfer-out permits in 2025, an appeal ratio of 3.14 to 1. The figures do not include Eaton Fire-displaced students.

The report found that 35% of enrollment by school type in the District area was in private schools in the 2024-2025 school year, compared with 57% in public schools, including non-public schools, and 8% in charter schools. The private-school data count students where they attend rather than where they live, omit homeschooling and very small schools, and carry no penalty for non-reporting. Charter enrollment, which peaked at 2,048 in 2019, was 1,474 in 2025.

The report found that recently constructed housing contained few students. The 2,852 housing units built since 2015 yielded 129 students in 2025. The 2,454 market-rate units built in that period contained 81 students, or roughly one student for every 30 units.

Affordable family or workforce housing produced significantly more students. The 90 affordable family or workforce housing units built since 2015 contained 45 students, a yield of one student for every two units.

In Altadena, recovery from the Eaton Fire remains slow. The fire destroyed 3,382 Altadena homes, and 121 rebuilds were completed by July 17. Only about half of the damaged and destroyed units have started the permitting and rebuilding process. Rebuilding the destroyed areas will take many years, according to the report.